Executive Summary
US-China diplomatic friction is rising as Beijing holds up a proposed visit by Pentagon official Elbridge Colby until it receives clarity on US tariff policy, utilizing defense dialogues as leverage. In cross-strait dynamics, experts assess that Beijing feels ascendant and is in no rush to take Taiwan by force, though US analysts warn that a failure to announce new arms sales to Taipei would severely impact Taiwan's security. Regionally, tensions are underscored by the US deployment of advanced missile systems to Japan, while the Philippines' deployment of BrahMos missiles shifts the South China Sea balance. Domestically, Taiwan is grappling with political clashes between the KMT and the Presidential Office, as President Lai frames the island's low birth rate as a national security issue.
Key Events
- Beijing is blocking a proposed visit by Pentagon Under-Secretary Elbridge Colby until it gets clarity on how Trump will proceed with tariffs, using defense exchanges as leverage. → link
- Bonnie Glaser notes a Colby visit to China would allow the US to convey concerns regarding China's nuclear modernization, cyber and space activities, and coercion against US partners. → link
- Glaser argues that if no US arms sales to Taiwan are announced in the coming months, it would have a serious impact on Taiwan's security. → link
- Foreign Affairs analysis suggests Beijing believes itself ascendant and is in no rush to take Taiwan by force. → link
- US to send powerful missile systems to Japan for drills amid China tensions. → link
- PRC stated that the level of US tariffs on China must not exceed the level set under the Kuala Lumpur joint arrangement. → link
- President Lai proposes extended subsidies for parents, calling Taiwan’s low birth rate a national security issue. → link
Analysis
Patterns: China is adopting a highly transactional approach to US diplomatic and defense engagements, explicitly withholding military communication (the Colby visit) until its economic and tariff conditions are clarifyed. This mirrors historical PRC practices of freezing military-to-military ties to signal displeasure with US policies. Domestically in Taiwan, the DPP continues to push defense and demographic security narratives, while the KMT remains combative, highlighting a polarized political environment vulnerable to external coercion.
Escalation/De-escalation Trends: The overall trend points toward stable but elevated friction. While strategic assessments suggest Beijing is not preparing for an imminent invasion of Taiwan (de-escalation of immediate conflict fears), the continued leverage of defense talks and the deployment of advanced US missile systems to Japan indicate a steady escalation of long-term military posturing in the region.
What to Watch Next: Watch for movement on US arms sale packages to Taiwan in the coming weeks; a failure to announce them would confirm regional fears of concessions made to Beijing during the Trump-Xi summit dynamics. Additionally, monitor whether Washington concedes to Beijing's tariff demands to unlock the Colby visit, which would signal a shift in US-China economic and defense leverage.
Tweet Feed
US-China Diplomacy & Trade
@niubi · 2026-05-20T23:56
RT @AsiaLens: SCOOP China is holding up Pentagon’s Bridge Colby @USWPColby visit to Beijing until gets clarity on how Trump will proceed with tariffs… → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-05-21T15:16
RT @sentdefender: Beijing is holding up a proposed visit this Summer by Pentagon officials, including Elbridge Colby, Under-Secretary of De… → tweet link
@BonnieGlaser · 2026-05-21T01:23
“A Colby visit to China would provide an opportunity to convey US concerns about Chinese pressures and coercion against US partners and allies, its nuclear modernisation, and cyber & space activities,” said Bonnie Glaser..."Colby could also elaborate on the US national defence strategy that he helped draft & discuss military AI applications and crisis communications." https://t.co/XBVRToMx15 → tweet link
@SCMPNews · 2026-05-21T01:03
Exclusive | Will US defence strategy architect Colby pave the way for Hegseth’s China visit? https://t.co/yTCEa1O6pp → tweet link
@niubi · 2026-05-21T16:05
RT @gdp1985: PRC said recently, "...the level of US tariffs on China must not exceed the level set under the Kuala Lumpur joint arrangement… → tweet link
@niubi · 2026-05-21T16:06
RT @JulianGewirtz: Fascinating to see a spate of Chinese analysts over the past week centering their assessment of the Trump-Xi summit and… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T13:22
RT @jonstivers: Granting concessions for the mere privilege of meeting Chinese officials isn’t diplomacy. It’s tribute. And it’s a prime… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T11:23
RT @jojjeols: Anyone who believes China could possibly also use the same condition for Xi Jinping's upcoming visit to the US, scheduled for… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T06:29
RT @DanielBShapiro: That gets the order wrong. Approve the sale. Then bargain with China over the visit's terms. → tweet link
@BonnieGlaser · 2026-05-21T18:57
RT @sarwar_kashmeri: While both Washington and Beijing insist there has been “no change” in U.S. policy toward Taiwan, Pres. Trump’s remark… → tweet link
@BonnieGlaser · 2026-05-21T19:00
RT @GMFAsia: 📊 ‘The primary mechanism so far…is through the promotion of trade settlement and, to some extent, the use of renminbi in inter… → tweet link
Cross-Strait Relations & Taiwan Security
@BonnieGlaser · 2026-05-21T11:53
RT @ForeignAffairs: “Believing itself ascendant, Beijing is in no rush to try to take Taiwan by force.” @amanda_hsiao and @BonnieGlaser arg… → tweet link
@BonnieGlaser · 2026-05-20T21:45
RT @gmfus: GMF expert @BonnieGlaser in @WSJ: "If no arms sales are announced in the coming months, it would have a serious impact on Taiwan… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T13:20
RT @ForeignDevil666: On the question of selling U.S. weapons to Taipei, Eyck Freymann, a Hoover Fellow at Stanford University said, "No mat… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T13:20
RT @IslaIsland886: No amt of appeasement would satisfy China’s desire to subjugate Taiwan
Acknowledging we have a shared “Chinese ethnicit… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T08:46
This framing is completely bogus. The DPP has repeatedly said it wants dialogue. It is Beijing that refuses. → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T11:06
RT @lnachman32: I’m quoted in Mandarin for @bbcchinese on the problems Lai faces when he invokes the word “independence” in Mandarin and ho… → tweet link
@BonnieGlaser · 2026-05-20T21:45
RT @sarwar_kashmeri: @BonnieGlaser On #PolarisLive this morning 0930-1000 AM EDT #BONNIEGLASER ON "#TAIWAN'S FUTURE AFTER THE XI-TRUMP SUMM… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T06:09
RT @JordanSchachtel: POTUS has Taiwan’s back and will continue to bolster relations with Taipei, @SenatorHagerty tells @MariaBartiromo.
Go… → tweet link
@BonnieGlaser · 2026-05-21T18:57
RT @GMFAsia: #ICYMI: On #TaiwanFrontlines, @BonnieGlaser and @augama speak with @brandontseng2 of @shieldaitech about the future of autono… → tweet link
Taiwan Domestic Politics & Economy
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T12:25
RT @Focus_Taiwan: Opposition Kuomintang Legislator Weng Hsiao-ling and Presidential Office Secretary-General Pan Men-an traded barbs Thursd… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T12:09
RT @brianhioe: Don’t really expect to see the KMT backing down from this anytime soon
https://t.co/8jtVmKfNJ8 → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T12:11
RT @taiwanplusnews: President Lai is proposing extended subsidies for parents, calling Taiwan’s low birth rate a national security issue. B… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T12:25
RT @keverington: US becomes Taiwan’s top trade partner https://t.co/0oU2b3P7K6 → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T13:23
RT @RossFeingold: More good news for #Taiwan #semiconductor #AI supply chain, and for Pres. @ChingteLai.
(@AMD Lisa Su and @nvidia Jensen… → tweet link
South China Sea & Regional Military Posture
@SCMPNews · 2026-05-21T02:33
US to send powerful missile systems to Japan for drills amid China tensions https://t.co/JFJpZVbgnR → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T08:47
RT @IsabellaAn67: BrahMos is a game changer for Philippines & the entire region.
And, guess where has Philippines deployed these supersoni… → tweet link
@SCMPNews · 2026-05-21T02:00
Singapore’s weaponised drone trial spotlights regional rush for unmanned systems https://t.co/UkAO3Zhoh5 → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T13:22
RT @TheNatlInterest: The US Navy is the smallest it's been since before World War I, and it's going to shrink even more this year.
Learn… → tweet link
Chinese Geopolitics & Espionage
@michaelturton · 2026-05-21T12:25
RT @GloriaRosa202: China is running world's largest espionage operation & no one is safe!
5 Chinese spies posing as tourists were arrested… → tweet link
@SCMPNews · 2026-05-21T02:27
The news comes hard on the heels of visits to Beijing by the presidents of the United States and Russia. Read more: https://t.co/As9JUtDKJ0
chinanorthkorea #kimjongun #xijingping #diplomacy #china https://t.co/5b2OQhARxw
@SCMPNews · 2026-05-21T17:42
China was against the “abuse of judicial proceedings” and opposed external forces pressuring Cuba under any excuse. Read more: https://t.co/BLaZgnwaHl
cuba #castro #usa #china #sanctions https://t.co/GqGUF07krg
@SCMPNews · 2026-05-21T03:23
Nvidia’s H200 sales prospects in China remain uncertain despite Huang visit https://t.co/fH77prpliT → tweet link
Hong Kong
@SCMPNews · 2026-05-21T01:32
Hong Kong’s Central Asia pivot aims to boost belt and road role, analysts say https://t.co/rRdf0AzGaA → tweet link
@SCMPNews · 2026-05-21T03:03
What do travellers need to know when Hong Kong airport’s Terminal 2 opens? https://t.co/VcLwsOonCD → tweet link
@SCMPNews · 2026-05-21T02:44
Man injured in Hong Kong 10-vehicle crash during rush hour https://t.co/U6gutJIAUU → tweet link