Daily Intelligence Briefing: China / Taiwan Monitor
Reporting Period: 25–26 May 2026
Executive Summary
PLA military activity around Taiwan intensified, with 21 Chinese aircraft—including J-16 fighters and drones—detected near Taiwan, and satellite imagery confirming the Liaoning carrier group operating in the Philippine Sea southeast of Taiwan. A Taiwan F-16 captured rare footage of a Chinese tanker refueling PLA fighter jets mid-air, signaling advancing PLA aerial refueling capabilities. Meanwhile, the undersea cable linking Matsu Island to Taiwan was severed again with Chinese vessels operating in the area. On the espionage front, an American writing for PRC state media was arrested for acting as an unregistered Chinese agent, exposing MSS recruitment networks inside the United States. Diplomatically, German lawmakers met Taiwan's President Lai and rebuffed Beijing's criticism, while China and Singapore reaffirmed their commitment to Malacca Strait transit security.
Key Events
- PLA Liaoning carrier group detected near Taiwan: Satellite imagery from May 19–20 shows the Liaoning carrier and escort vessels conducting far-sea training in the Philippine Sea southeast of Taiwan. → link
- 21 Chinese aircraft detected near Taiwan: Taiwan's Defence Ministry reported J-16 fighters and drones operating around the island late on May 25. → link
- Taiwan F-16 captures Chinese aerial refueling: Footage from a Taiwanese F-16 documents a Chinese tanker refueling fighter jets—highlighting growing PLA proficiency in extended air operations. → link
- Matsu Island undersea cable severed again: A communications cable linking Matsu to Taiwan was cut, with Chinese vessels again operating in the area—part of a pattern of gray-zone infrastructure targeting. → link
- American arrested as PRC unregistered agent: Tom Pauken, who wrote for Chinese state media under the pseudonym "Tom McGregor," was arrested for acting as an intermediary for MSS intelligence officer "Cathy" to recruit individuals with access to classified U.S. information. → link
- German lawmakers meet President Lai, defy Beijing: A German parliamentary delegation met Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te and rejected China's criticism, declaring democratic exchanges "will not be hindered." → link
- China & Singapore reaffirm Malacca Strait commitment: Top diplomats from both nations reaffirmed commitments to Malacca Strait transit amid growing Chinese strategic focus on the chokepoint. → link
- China Coast Guard harasses Japanese fishermen at Senkakus: CCG vessels attempted to intimidate Japanese fishermen in Japan's territorial waters near the Senkaku Islands. → link
- Taiwanese lawmakers plan visit to Dongsha (Pratas) Island: A delegation is set to visit the Taiwan-controlled island in the disputed South China Sea. → link
- Foreign Affairs analysis argues Beijing is in no rush to take Taiwan by force: Bonnie Glaser and Amanda Hsiao argue that PRC confidence in its upward trajectory reduces the incentive for imminent military action. → link
- China restricting overseas travel for top AI professionals: Beijing is limiting international travel for AI researchers at firms like Alibaba and DeepSeek, suggesting escalating efforts to protect strategic technology. → link
- China revised carbon intensity calculations show 7% rise: Revised PRC figures reveal CO₂ per unit of economic output rose 7% from 2020–2025, roughly 700 million tonnes more than previously reported. → link
- PLA-N circumnavigation impacted regional defense planning: Australia's defense officials acknowledged that last year's PLA-N circumnavigation of Australia had a significant impact on strategic thinking. → link
- KMT plans referendum on flogging in Taiwan: Taiwan's opposition KMT is reportedly pushing a nationwide vote on corporal punishment, drawing criticism. → link
- Lisa Su of AMD visits China and Taiwan: The AMD CEO toured both markets, highlighting semiconductor supply chain intersections. → link
- Hong Kong issues year's first "very hot weather" warning: → link
Analysis
Military Pressure Pattern Consistent but Evolving: The simultaneous detection of 21 PLA aircraft, the Liaoning carrier group in the Philippine Sea, and documented aerial refueling operations suggest the PLA is refining its ability to sustain combat air operations at distance from the mainland—directly relevant to any Taiwan contingency. The aerial refueling footage, in particular, represents a capability milestone worth monitoring.
Gray-Zone Tactics Continue Against Taiwan: The repeated severing of the Matsu undersea cable—with Chinese surveillance or fishing vessels consistently present—fits a well-documented pattern of PRC gray-zone infrastructure disruption against Taiwan's outer islands. This remains below the threshold of armed conflict but imposes real costs and signal degradation.
Espionage Case Reveals MSS Playbook: The Pauken arrest exposes how MSS uses Western commentators and media figures as intermediaries to recruit persons with access to classified information. The handler "Cathy" issuing specific taskings during Pauken's trips to the U.S. demonstrates a structured intelligence collection effort targeting the incoming U.S. administration.
Regional Diplomatic Pushback Continues: German lawmakers' public defiance of Beijing to meet President Lai, combined with Philippine-Japan strategic strengthening and Australia's evolving defense posture post-PLA-N circumnavigation, indicate that PRC military assertiveness is continuing to catalyze balancing behavior across the Indo-Pacific.
What to Watch: (1) Whether the Liaoning group conducts further operations closer to Taiwan's eastern coast; (2) PRC response to the German delegation visit; (3) Further details from the Pauken espionage case, especially identification of "Person 1" and "Person 2"; (4) Any PRC retaliation for the planned Taiwanese lawmaker visit to Dongsha Island.
Tweet Feed
PRC Military Activity Around Taiwan
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T06:24
RT @new27brigade: 台灣區域安全通報 本月19日至20日間，中國遼寧號航艦和多艘艦艇在台灣東南海域附近、菲律賓海範圍執行遠航編隊訓練，衛星照顯示其位置 → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T05:54
RT @WilliamYang120: Late on May 25, Taiwan's Defence Ministry said it had detected 21 Chinese aircraft, including J-16 fighters and drones… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T09:09
RT @TaiwanNewsEN: Taiwan F-16 captures footage of Chinese tanker refueling fighter jets → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T06:01
RT @Diplomat_APAC: A cable linking Matsu Island to Taiwan was severed – again. And again, Chinese vessels were operating in the area. → tweet link
PRC Espionage & Intelligence
@niubi · 2026-05-26T15:05
"PAUKEN said that Cathy never told him explicitly that she worked for MSS, but PAUKEN said that, after the polygraph, it was "obvious" that Cathy was with MSS. Throughout the interview, PAUKEN said he knew Cathy worked for the MSS. PAUKEN stated that he did not ask anyone for classified information. Instead, he asked people for publicly available information. PAUKEN admitted, however, that Cathy—and other of his clients—asked PAUKEN to obtain classified or non-public information. PAUKEN stated that he did not want to personally deal with classified information. But PAUKEN admitted that he was part of an agreement with the MSS in which he acted as an intermediary to recruit individuals to provide classified information to the MSS. PAUKEN agreed that his role in this arrangement occurred both before and after the FBI interviewed him in January 2025. PAUKEN agreed that for both his January 2025 and February 2026 trips to the United States, Cathy provided taskings for PAUKEN to complete in the United States. PAUKEN agreed that he completed those tasks for Cathy." → tweet link
@niubi · 2026-05-26T15:03
who are persons one and two? from the affidavit: One person with whom PAUKEN planned to meet was, at the time, doing some consulting work and looking for a job in the incoming Trump administration ("Person 1"). PAUKEN met Person 1 at a political event held in Washington D.C. in June 2023. PAUKEN planned on meeting with another individual who worked for a financial newspaper. Finally, PAUKEN planned on meeting with an individual who was the president of an energy-focused nonprofit foundation ("Person 2"). // And who is "Cathy"? → tweet link
@niubi · 2026-05-25T21:49
RT @joshgerstein: NEW: American who worked for state-run news outlets in China arrested for acting as unregistered agent for PRC in US. Tom… → tweet link
@niubi · 2026-05-25T21:55
"Pauken, who writes under the pseudonym Tom McGregor, is the author of a 2019 book titled 'US Vs China: From Trade War To Reciprocal Deal,' which claims to provide 'a neutral and balanced perspective' on the U.S.-China trade relationship." → tweet link
Taiwan Diplomacy & Politics
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T07:59
RT @tvbsworldtaiwan: 🚨 Breaking: German lawmakers meet Taiwan's President Lai and reject China's criticism, saying democratic exchanges 'wi… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T07:59
RT @taiwandefense: Analysis: Taiwan's Role in Indo-Pacific Security. USTBC Defense Delegation head General (Ret.) Charles A. Flynn speaks… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T13:11
RT @brianhioe: Wow, the KMT is really planning on making the nation vote on flogging. I originally thought it was a stunt, because they hav… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T09:11
This argument only works because they use the word 'unification' → tweet link
@BonnieGlaser · 2026-05-25T22:09
RT @ForeignAffairs: "Believing itself ascendant, Beijing is in no rush to try to take Taiwan by force." @amanda_hsiao and @BonnieGlaser arg… → tweet link
South China Sea & Regional Security
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T05:50
RT @DominoTheoryMag: A group of Taiwanese lawmakers are set to visit the Taiwan-controlled Dongsha Island (Pratas) in the disputed South Ch… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T13:11
RT @NguyenThih36: This is China Coast Guard, trying hard to intimidate Japanese fishermen in Japan's waters near the Senkaku Islands. But t… → tweet link
@SCMPNews · 2026-05-26T08:06
Top China, Singapore diplomats reaffirm commitment to Malacca Strait transit → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T13:11
RT @dennisw5: I find Chinese attention to the Malacca Strait a sign that concern over the Malacca Dilemma that former President Hu Jintao s… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T09:08
RT @stephendziedzic: Hammond also tells the conference that the PLA-N circumnavigation last year "certainly had an impact" - he says it sti… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T09:08
RT @GeoPulseLab: If there's a crisis in Taiwan, Southeast Asia will be forced to choose between the US and China. Without better regional c… → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T09:08
RT @kenmoriyasu: the first state visit by a Philippine leader to Japan in over a decade. Marcos' historic Japan trip: what will Philippine… → tweet link
PRC Domestic Policy & Economic Issues
@niubi · 2026-05-26T10:52
RT @business: China is restricting overseas travel for top AI professionals in private firms such as Alibaba and DeepSeek, suggesting an es… → tweet link
@niubi · 2026-05-25T23:27
"Under Beijing's revised calculation for carbon intensity — the measure for the amount of CO₂ per unit of economic output — in the world's second-biggest economy rose 7 per cent from 2020 to 2025, said the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a European think-tank. The figure is half the rise indicated previously, a gap which amounts to around 700mn tonnes of carbon, or the same amount emitted annually by major manufacturing economies such as Germany and South Korea." → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T13:17
RT @DominoTheoryMag: NEW: Lisa Su of @AMD spent the past week visiting China and Taiwan, highlighting the role that AMD will play in the ne… → tweet link
Hong Kong
@SCMPNews · 2026-05-26T03:46
Hong Kong issues year's first 'very hot weather' warning → tweet link
@SCMPNews · 2026-05-26T02:48
Singapore investigates Hong Kong school principal for swearing at security guards → tweet link
@michaelturton · 2026-05-26T04:35
RT @ted_huang: This culture in Taiwan of people talking about others' health issue REALLY bothers me--like 蕭旭岑, a former top aide of Ma Yin… → tweet link