Intelligence Briefing: Iran & Middle East Monitor
Date: March 13, 2026
Executive Summary
The U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran intensifies into its third week with major developments across multiple fronts. CENTCOM confirmed the loss of a KC-135 refueling aircraft over western Iraq with four crew members killed and two unaccounted for, describing it as a non-hostile incident possibly involving a mid-air collision. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement vowing to maintain the Strait of Hormuz closure and continue attacks on regional U.S. bases, while Iranian officials appeared publicly at Al-Quds Day rallies despite ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Tehran. The Pentagon announced deployment of 2,200 Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit to the region as the conflict shows no signs of de-escalation, with oil prices crossing $100/barrel for the first time since 2022.
Key Events
• CENTCOM confirms loss of KC-135 over Iraq with 4 crew KIA, 2 missing - Incident involved two tankers, possibly mid-air collision; second aircraft landed safely in Israel with significant tail damage → link
• Pentagon deploying 31st MEU with 2,200 Marines to Middle East - Amphibious ready group aboard USS Tripoli ordered from INDOPACOM; includes F-35s and Ospreys → link
• New Iranian Supreme Leader vows to keep Hormuz closed - Mojtaba Khamenei's first statement (read by state TV) promises continued attacks on regional bases and potential "new fronts" → link
• Israeli strikes target Iranian intelligence leadership in Tehran - IDF examining whether strike killed Iranian army intelligence chief Amir Shari'at and deputy along with other senior officers → link
• U.S. Army HIMARS confirmed to have sunk Iranian submarine - Chairman of Joint Chiefs reveals ATACMS used against Iranian naval vessels including submarine → link
• Iran laying mines in Strait of Hormuz - U.S. officials report IRGC small craft deploying mines faster than removal capacity → link
• Iranian senior leadership appears at Al-Quds Day rally despite strikes - Ali Larijani, President Pezeshkian, FM Aragchi attend public demonstration; Israeli strike reported near rally → link
• Brent crude crosses $100/barrel for first time since 2022 - Oil prices surge 9.22% as Hormuz closure continues → link
• USS Oscar Austin intercepts Iranian ballistic missile targeting Turkey - SM-3 used to shoot down missile headed for Incirlik Air Base → link
• Lebanese President offers direct negotiations with Israel - Joseph Aoun signals openness to normalization but Israel rejects as "too little, too late" → link
• State Department offers $10M rewards for IRGC leaders - Bounties posted for information on Mojtaba Khamenei and Ali Larijani → link
• Multiple B-52H bombers arrive at RAF Fairford - At least 3 additional Stratofortresses deployed; total bomber force now 17 aircraft (11 B-1B, 6 B-52H) → link
• Iran fires cluster munition warheads at central Israel - Multiple impacts reported in Tel Aviv area with fires and structural damage → link
• French soldier killed in drone attack on base in Iraqi Kurdistan - At least 6 French troops injured in Erbil area strike → link
• Trump: "Watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today" - President signals intensified strikes on Iran in Truth Social post → link
Analysis
Escalation Trajectory: The conflict continues to intensify despite claims by Pentagon officials of "winning." Iran's defiant first statement from its new Supreme Leader, combined with the Marine deployment and continued bomber arrivals in Europe, signals neither side is preparing for de-escalation. The loss of the KC-135—the first combat-related loss of such aircraft since 2013—demonstrates the operational strain on U.S. forces conducting sustained high-tempo operations.
Iranian Strategy: Tehran's calculus appears focused on inflicting maximum costs through Hormuz closure and regional attacks rather than seeking immediate de-escalation. The public appearance of senior Iranian officials at Al-Quds Day rallies—even amid active airstrikes—projects defiance and regime stability. Iran's mine-laying operations and continued ballistic missile launches suggest preparation for prolonged conflict.
Regional Spillover: The expansion to include attacks on French forces in Iraq, missile strikes on Turkey (a NATO member), and continued targeting of Gulf Arab states demonstrates dangerous geographic spread. The rejection of Lebanese peace overtures and intensified Hezbollah engagement indicates the Lebanon front may expand significantly.
Critical Watch Items: - Search and rescue outcomes for missing KC-135 crew - Marine deployment timeline and mission parameters - Iran's threatened "new fronts" (possibly Houthi activation in Bab al-Mandab) - Oil market stability as prices exceed $100/barrel - Verification of strikes on Iranian intelligence leadership - Status of Mojtaba Khamenei amid injury reports - NATO response to Iranian strikes on Turkish territory
Tweet Feed
U.S. Military Operations
@jimsciutto · 2026-03-12T21:33
Breaking: @CENTCOM announces loss of KC-135 aircraft over Iraq, rescue efforts still ongoing. Full statement: Loss of U.S. KC-135 Over Iraq. The incident occurred in friendly airspace during Operation Epic Fury, and rescue efforts are ongoing. Two aircraft were involved in the incident. One of the aircraft went down in western Iraq, and the second landed safely. This was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire. → tweet link
@Faytuks · 2026-03-12T21:54
The USAF KC-135 that went down in western Iraq had a crew of six, according to CBS News. Another KC-135 was "hit" but landed in Israel. → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-03-13T09:35
BREAKING: Four U.S. service members confirmed dead after a KC-135 refueling aircraft went down in western Iraq on March 12, U.S. Central Command says. Two crew members remain unaccounted for as rescue efforts continue. → tweet link
@TheIntelFrog · 2026-03-12T21:53
This is the first loss of a KC-135 in support of combat operations since 3 May 2013 when KC-135 63-8877 of the 22nd ARW suffered a structural failure and crashed over Northern Kyrgyzstan after supporting operations in Afghanistan killing all 3 crew members. → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-03-13T08:02
A better look at the partially sliced-off tail of the USAF KC-135 involved in the mid-air collision over Iraq yesterday, back on the ground in Tel Aviv. → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-03-13T16:49
The U.S. is sending the 2,200 Marines and sailors of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit from INDOPACOM to the Middle East. The 31st MEU is based around the USS Tripoli (LHA 7) and its air wing of Ospreys and F-35s. → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-03-13T15:26
BREAKING: The Pentagon is deploying a Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East after Iran's attacks in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipping through the key waterway, according to U.S. officials. The unit typically includes up to 2,500 Marines. — WSJ → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-03-13T18:07
The U.S. Army has sent 10,000 Merops AI-enabled interceptor drones developed in Ukraine by the California-based defense venture Project Eagle to the Middle East, as it looks to repel Iranian one-way drone attacks without using up high-cost missile defense systems, according to a statement Friday by U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-03-13T17:28
During this morning's press conference at the Pentagon, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan "Raizin" Caine, revealed that MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), a surface-launched tactical ballistic missile operated by the U.S. Army, have been utilized to sink several Iranian ships, including a submarine, since the start of Operation Epic Fury. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-03-13T18:48
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has released footage showing B-2A "Spirit" Long-Range Strategic Stealth Bombers with the 509th Bomb Wing taking off from Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, for strikes against targets in Iran under Operation Epic Fury. → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-03-13T18:52
Dozens of USAF aerial refueling tankers are operating over the Middle East tonight, supporting strikes on Iran. The skies are remarkably busy along the Saudi-Iraqi border as tankers rotate in over the Persian Gulf to top up fighters. → tweet link
@DefenceGeek · 2026-03-13T11:04
RAF Fairford - USAF Bombers ORBAT (13/03/2026 UPDATE) #FreeIran --- Operation EPIC FURY --- RAF Fairford now has the following US Air Force bomber aircraft available for #OperationEpicFury, following the arrival of 3 additional B-52H "Stratofortress" aircraft this morning: TOTAL: 17 bombers (11x B-1B "Lancer", 6x B-52H "Stratofortress") → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-03-13T11:55
U.S. Army HIMARS launching an ATACMS tactical ballistic missile at Iran last week. → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-03-13T03:29
USAF A-10 Warthog strafing Iranian-backed militias in Iraq tonight with its GAU-8 Avenger autocannon. → tweet link
Strikes on Iran
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-03-13T14:11
NEW: Israeli officials are verifying whether a strike in Tehran killed the head of Iranian army intelligence Shari'at, and his deputy, along with other senior officers. Shari'at was reportedly a "shadow figure" whose identity had not been publicly disclosed in Iran. Israel is examining whether much of the army's intelligence leadership was neutralized in the attack. — Kan News → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-03-13T09:14
An explosion was reported in Tehran moments ago, following a reported airstrike near a pro-regime protest attended by multiple high-ranking Iranian officials. → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-03-13T09:24
Strikes reported in Tehran near the "Al-Quds Day" march. Iranian officials Ali Larijani and police chief Ahmad-Reza Radan attend the march → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-03-13T18:32
Explosions can be heard in Tehran, Iran, as the Israel Defense Force has announced a new wave of widespread strikes in Tehran. → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-03-13T18:32
A new wave of Israeli strikes are taking place in Tehran. → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-03-13T12:20
Footage of a major US/Israeli strike targeting the Iranian Air Force's 4th Fighter Base in Dezful this morning. → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-03-13T16:32
Footage of an American airstrike on an Iranian Air Force Su-22 tactical bomber while it was inside its hardened aircraft shelter at the 4th Fighter Base in Dezful. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-03-13T17:35
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) continues to release footage of strikes against targets in Iran, with the below video showing the destruction of two ballistic missile launchers as well as what appears to be a Sukhoi Su-22 in service with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force (IRGCASF). → tweet link
@lookner · 2026-03-13T02:30
Have seen numerous reports of very powerful airstrikes felt in Tehran over the past couple hours. Even state media talks about "massive explosions" and people reporting their homes shaking. [