Executive Summary
Iran held a dayslong funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a US/Israeli airstrike in February, with his son Mojtaba notably absent due to fears of an Israeli assassination attempt. The Strait of Hormuz continues to experience severe disruptions from the US/Iran conflict; commercial vessels are abandoning the U.S.-supported Omani corridor for the Iranian route, over 58 million barrels of Iranian crude are stranded at sea, and Chinese imports have plummeted. Regionally, Israeli officials assess that Hamas could be declared in breach of the Gaza agreement by September, while diplomatic tensions rise as the EU threatens to suspend its trade agreement with Israel and Turkey's Foreign Minister makes hostile statements against the country. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump confirmed that Israeli PM Netanyahu has requested a White House meeting, boasting that Netanyahu "knows who the boss is."
Key Events
- Iran begins dayslong funeral proceedings for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed months ago in an airstrike, with his casket unveiled in a glass case in Tehran. → link
- Mojtaba Khamenei asked to attend his father's burial but was blocked by security officials who feared Israel could assassinate him or use his presence to locate his hideout. → link
- Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has drastically shifted, with the overwhelming majority now using the Iranian traffic separation scheme instead of the U.S.-supported Omani route. → link
- Over 58 million barrels of Iranian crude are floating at sea, more than 90% without a confirmed buyer, as Chinese imports plummet amidst the US/Iran war. → link
- A CMA CGM ship hit by a missile in the Strait of Hormuz may be scrapped due to damage. → link
- Israeli officials assess that the "Board of Peace" could declare Hamas in breach of the Gaza agreement within 2-3 months, potentially leading to renewed fighting. → link
- The Lebanese government took down pro-Iran billboards near the Beirut airport, replacing "Thank you, Iran" with "Lebanon first." → link
- President Trump confirmed Netanyahu has requested a White House meeting, stating Netanyahu "knows who the boss is." → link
- The EU is threatening to suspend its trade agreement with Israel, drawing strong condemnation from Israeli advocates. → link
Analysis
Patterns: The US/Iran conflict has fundamentally disrupted regional maritime logistics, forcing commercial traffic to adapt to Iranian-controlled corridors in the Strait of Hormuz while creating a massive floating storage of unsold Iranian crude. The death of Ayatollah Khamenei has not stabilized the region; rather, the regime's internal security fears—such as hiding Mojtaba Khamenei—indicate a high degree of vulnerability. Meanwhile, regional pushback against Iranian influence is visible in Lebanon's removal of pro-Iran billboards and diplomatic friction with Israel.
Escalation/De-escalation Trends: Escalation risks remain high across multiple fronts. In Gaza, the potential collapse of the ceasefire agreement by September could reignite full-scale conflict. Diplomatic isolation of Israel is also accelerating, with the EU and Turkey taking a harder stance. Conversely, the US and Israel are aligning strategically, with Trump reinforcing his dominance over Netanyahu ahead of a potential White House visit.
What to Watch Next: - The outcome of the Netanyahu-Trump meeting following the NATO summit in Ankara. - Whether the "Board of Peace" formally declares Hamas in breach of the Gaza agreement by September. - Further rerouting of commercial shipping and the scrapping status of vessels damaged in the Strait of Hormuz. - The security situation in Iran post-funeral and any Israeli strikes targeting Mojtaba Khamenei.
Tweet Feed
Iran Leadership & Funeral
@WarMonitors · 2026-07-04T08:44
⚡️ Iran begins dayslong funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, months after airstrike killed him at war's start https://t.co/k8kBlrg3Tz → tweet link
@WarMonitors · 2026-07-04T08:45
⚡️ Iran unveils casket of late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in glass case before weeping mourners in Tehran https://t.co/F2h3IMuyuB → tweet link
@fpleitgenCNN · 2026-07-04T09:51
We are at the funeral ceremony for Iran‘s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Large crowds passing the coffins at the Mosallah center in Tehran. Authorities estimate millions will come to pay their final respects. Laying in state: the Supreme Leader and several family members killed in a US / Israeli airstrike on February 28th. @CNN → tweet link
@WarMonitors · 2026-07-04T08:54
⚡️More from the Funeral of Khamenei https://t.co/UgiiUau2dc → tweet link
@WarMonitors · 2026-07-04T12:01
⚡️Funeral of Khamenei today https://t.co/RKD7AB4gah → tweet link
@WarMonitors · 2026-07-04T11:11
His name is Mullah Rocketi? → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-04T12:02
NYT: Mojtaba Khamenei asked to attend his father Ali Khamenei’s burial in Mashhad on Thursday but was blocked by security officials, who feared Israel could assassinate him or use his presence to locate his hideout. → tweet link
@HananyaNaftali · 2026-07-04T11:30
Khamenei's son Mojtaba is expected to be absent from the funeral, out of concern Israel could attempt to kill him or track him to his hideout. https://t.co/TXlC7PE2ls → tweet link
@HananyaNaftali · 2026-07-04T08:00
"Death to America" chants in Iran. Well done JD Vance what a great deal you made with the devil, with a regime that hates and plans to destroy not just Israel but Western civilization. https://t.co/PtSngQLHxN → tweet link
@HananyaNaftali · 2026-07-04T07:50
Trump "We dismantled Iran, gave them a week's break for the funeral because we're nice" Well, you're not supposed to be nice with your enemies. https://t.co/XbHORIaweE → tweet link
@HananyaNaftali · 2026-07-04T10:00
Iranians in Australia rallied outside the US embassy in Canberra, voicing opposition to any deal that would grant legitimacy to the Islamic Regime. If world leaders have little wisdom left, it should pay all the attention to what Iranian people are saying. Video: Lion Art Australia → tweet link
Strait of Hormuz, Oil & Shipping
@sentdefender · 2026-07-04T15:19
A review of commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, visible via https://t.co/Y4QTdcQsH7 over the past 24 hours, shows only one merchant vessel completed its transit using the U.S.-supported traffic separation scheme through Omani waters (south). The overwhelming majority of visible traffic instead utilized the Iranian (northern) traffic separation scheme. Notably, two groups of vessels initially attempted to use the southern route. One group reversed course before completing the transit, while a second group abandoned the Omani corridor and crossed into the Iranian traffic separation scheme. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-04T18:23
RT @anasalhajji: 🟥Some people think the damage from Hormuz crisis was minor and no big deal. Tell that to someone living outside Western st… → tweet link
@mercoglianos · 2026-07-04T16:14
RT @LTDManagement: CMA CGM Ship Hit By Missile In Hormuz Strait May Go For Scrapping https://t.co/pzIzGPcvny → tweet link
@mercoglianos · 2026-07-04T14:51
RT @jackprandelli: Iran ha a big oil problem 🛢️ 🔸Over 58 million barrels of Iranian crude are floating at sea, more than 90% without a con… → tweet link
@mercoglianos · 2026-07-04T14:51
RT @Rory_Johnston: This morning's Hormuz behaviour update, via BBG: • At least eight ships attempting to leave the Persian Gulf along th… → tweet link
@mercoglianos · 2026-07-04T13:53
RT @Rory_Johnston: What I find most interesting about this latest change-up in Hormuz route behaviour is that it doesn't appear to have bee… → tweet link
@mercoglianos · 2026-07-04T11:46
RT @MartinKelly: TAURUS LEADER (NYK 3rd party Op) CHEMROAD ROSE turned around, ORIENTAL MARGUERITE & LONG WIND swapped from Omani TTW to… → tweet link
@mercoglianos · 2026-07-04T11:29
RT @ericnuttall: Since the US/Iran war began, Chinese imports have plummeted, falling by 3.5MM Bbl/d YOY on avg. April-June and down 4.9MM… → tweet link
Israel-Gaza Conflict & Diplomacy
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-04T17:56
U.S. President Donald Trump has confirmed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has requested a meeting at the White House, with discussions potentially taking place as early as next week. → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-04T17:58
Speaking to Axios, President Trump indicated that the meeting is expected to occur following the conclusion of the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. The potential visit would mark the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders since their high-level talks in February. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-04T17:47
Speaking Saturday to Axios, President Trump stated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “knows who the boss is,” referring to himself, while adding that Bibi has asked him for a meeting at the White House, which could take place as soon as after next week’s NATO Summit. https://t.co/hqXWY6z784 → tweet link
@WarMonitors · 2026-07-04T17:04
⚡#SHOCKING Trump on his relationship with Netanyahu: We get along great, he knows full well who's the boss https://t.co/8DSKGqQ1uH → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-04T05:41
Israeli officials assess that within 2–3 months, possibly by September, the “Board of Peace” could declare Hamas in breach of the Gaza agreement. Such a move could give Israel wider freedom to operate in Hamas-held areas and potentially lead to renewed fighting. — N12 → tweet link
@HananyaNaftali · 2026-07-04T09:05
The European Union is threatening to suspend its trade agreement with Israel. Punishing the only democracy in the Middle East for fighting terrorism, while appeasing the actual sponsors of terror. Western hypocrisy at its finest. SHAME ON THE EU. https://t.co/f35QG2q35g → tweet link
@HananyaNaftali · 2026-07-04T13:02
"These people have become a burden that humanity can no longer bear." That wasn't said in 1939. That was just said by the Foreign Minister of Turkey, a NATO member, about Israel. The mask is completely off. This must be condemned! https://t.co/erN0aBCgsm → tweet link
@AyeletMM · 2026-07-04T18:54
בראבו. ובדיוק בגלל זה הטעות החמורה ביותר של נתניהו במלחמה הזאת הייתה לוותר על וח"ק ממלכתית בשנה הראשונה למלחמה. בכך הוא אפשר לכל האשמים באמת למלט את עצמם ולהפיץ תעמולת שקר. מכאן לא צומחים לקחים שמונעים את הטבח הבא, לצערי. → tweet link
@AyeletMM · 2026-07-04T13:09
ד"ר מצא לא אומר מה שכל עיתונאי יודע ולא מספר לכם - "תעשיית השלום" של רבין ו"המזרח התיכון החדש" של פרס הלבינו את השחיתות והפשע במזרח התיכון והקפיצו אותה לדרגת אסטרטגיה. הבעיה היא שכיום כבר אין כזה דבר שמאל וימין לא מושחתים מכורח. זה נועד לחסוך מלחמות, וכמו שראינו ב-7/10 זה התפוצץ בפנים. → tweet link
@HananyaNaftali · 2026-07-04T17:00
These “patriots” decided it’s cool to burn the Israeli flag to celebrate America’s 250th Independence Day. 🇺🇸 Watch till the end. https://t.co/zjUlJbwLs6 → tweet link
Lebanon & Regional Geopolitics
@HananyaNaftali · 2026-07-04T07:23
The Lebanese government just took down pro-Iran billboards near the Beirut airport. The signs saying "Thank you, Iran" are gone, replaced with "Lebanon first." The people of the Middle East are waking up to the reality that Iran brings nothing but destruction. https://t.co/yGvPzUMzLS → tweet link
@AyeletMM · 2026-07-04T10:22
ההגדרה המילונית של חוצפה, או עיוורון מקצועי, היא כרמלה מנשה מדווחת "סקופ" על אלוף רוני נומה, שנדהם לגלות את עומק הכשל באי הבנת חמאס ומטרותיו נגד ישראל ב-7/10 ואת כשל אי הבנת חומת יריחו, כשהלכה למעשה בגלל הקמפיין שלך ושל שלי יחימוביץ ועמיתייך עם תנועת ארבע אמהות, אהוד ברק מילט אותנו מלבנון מבלי לקחת בחשבון את מחיר הדמים אחר כך, לכאורה כמובן. הרי אף אחד לא בא עם כולכם חשבון עדיין, גם לא ראשי היישובים בקו העימות ובעוטף שצועקים רק נגד ה"קונספציה" של הממשלה האחרונה, לא של הקודמות. אף אחד מעמיתייך לא דיווח שבשנות הבריחה מאז אותו מפעיל של חמאס וחיזבאללה בנה אותם לתנועת מלחציים ג'יהאדיסטית נגד ישראל. בדיוק כמו בצה"ל ובשב"כ, אנחנו האזרחים הישראלים הפראיירים שמימנו את מחדל חומת יריחו ואת מחדל המחלישים ומרפי הידיים שגרמו לנו לברוח מלבנון ולחזור אליה במחיר יקר פי שלושה. קצת יותר מ-1200 חיילים נהרגו בלבנון במהלך 18 שנות המלחמה הראשונה. מאז הנסיגה מלבנון במאי 2000 ועד היום, נהרגו למעלה מ-4,000 ישראלים (אנשי כוחות הביטחון ואזרחים) בעימותים צבאיים ובפעולות טרור בחזיתות השונות המקושרות ישירות לציר האיראני – בראשן רצועת עזה, לבנון ופיגועי הטרור בשטחי המדינה. הכל על חשבוננו, וטרם שמענו חשבון נפש מאהוד ברק ועוזריו. → tweet link
@AyeletMM · 2026-07-03T19:51
איזו עיתונאית נעל משתפת את תמונות הקצינים הישראלים ממשלחת החילוץ שישראל שלחה לוונצואלה, ומתארת אותם בעוינות רק כ"חיילים ישראלים" שנראו בקראקס לראשונה מאז שהוגו צ'אבס ניתק את הקשרים, "בגלל המלחמה בעזה עוד לפני 2009". משתף את התמונה היסטוריון ממוצא לבנוני/עיראקי ואומר שלמרות שהוא לא יודע הרבה על ישראל או על ישראלים, אבל הוא בהחלט מעריך את העובדה שלמרות מפלי השנאה שאנחנו מקבלים, אנחנו מתייצבים בכל פעם כדי לעזור לאנשים. כבוד לאנשים האלה שעוזרים בוונצואלה, יהיו אשר יהיו, הוא מסיים. → tweet link
@ArmchairAdml · 2026-07-03T19:42
USAF United States Air Force - Middle East Ops Boeing E-3 Sentry 1x #AE11E7 79-0001 - Unknown C/S Boeing KC-46 Pegasus 2x #AE5BC1 16-46016 - FLYER 64 #AE63B5 20-46073 - FLYER 68 Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker 6x #AE0693 63-8004 - Unknown C/S #AE04CD 62-3503 - Unknown C/S #AE0500 59-1495 - Unknown C/S #AE062D 62-3571 - Unknown C/S #AE024D 62-3506 - Unknown C/S #AE0628 58-0122 - Unknown C/S