Iran & Middle East Monitor — Daily Intelligence Briefing
Date: July 19, 2026
Executive Summary
The US-Iran conflict has sharply escalated over the past 24 hours, with CENTCOM conducting an eighth consecutive night of airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including IRGC facilities, coastal radar sites, and missile/drone storage sites in southern Iran (Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island, Khuzestan). Iran continued its own offensive, launching missile and drone attacks against US bases in Jordan (killing two American service members, wounding dozens), striking Kuwaiti power and water infrastructure for a second time, and firing missiles toward Aqaba, Jordan — triggering Israeli air defense interceptors near Eilat. The US has surged additional F-35s, F-15s, and F-16s to the CENTCOM area of responsibility, while Israel assesses it may join attacks under specific scenarios. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains partially operational but under threat, with oil prices surging 25% in two weeks and Gulf states accelerating pipeline diversions away from the chokepoint.
Key Events
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US conducts eighth consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran. CENTOM announced precision strikes targeting IRGC forces responsible for the July 17 ballistic missile attack on US bases in Jordan that killed two and wounded dozens. Strikes focused on Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island, and Khuzestan Province, hitting coastal surveillance, air defense facilities, and missile/drone storage sites. → link
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Iran strikes Kuwaiti power and water infrastructure for second time in two days. Kuwaiti air defenses intercepted ballistic missiles and drones, but facilities belonging to the Ministry of Electricity, Water, and Renewable Energy were damaged, causing fires and power outages in the Hattin area. → link
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Iran fires missiles toward Aqaba, Jordan; Israeli interceptors triggered near Eilat. The IDF detected ballistic missile launches from Iran toward Aqaba and engaged missile fragments with air defense systems. The US Embassy in Amman had earlier issued a security alert citing a "specific and credible threat," prompting evacuation of Aqaba's airport and seaport. → link
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US surges additional fighter jets to CENTCOM AOR. 15 F-35As, 12 F-15s, and 24 F-16s have been deployed from bases in the UK, Italy, and Germany — many returning from prior CENTCOM deployments during Operation Epic Fury. NYT reports this signals preparation for a significantly escalated air campaign against Iran. → link
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Iran reports 50 killed, 517 wounded from latest US strikes. Iranian state media (Mehr News) confirmed casualties from American strikes. Separately, Iran's Atomic Energy Organization reported US strikes on the Darkhovin nuclear power plant construction site in Khuzestan. → link
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Iraqi PM carrying verbal message from Trump to Iranian leadership. PM Ali Falih al-Zaidi is relaying a message received during his recent Washington visit, according to Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida — a potential diplomatic backchannel amid escalating hostilities. → link
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Lebanese President Aoun meets Secretary Rubio; Trump meeting set for Tuesday. Discussions centered on the trilateral Israel-US-Lebanon framework for Hezbollah's dissolution and Israeli tiered withdrawal from southern Lebanon, against the backdrop of US-Iran escalation. → link
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Trump urges Congress to add Iran to Russian Sanctions Bill. The president called for Iran's inclusion in the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 as it progresses through the Senate. → link
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Iran downs US MQ-9 Reaper drone; footage released. IRGC Aerospace Force shot down the American drone, with footage showing Iranian villagers recovering the Honeywell TPE331 turboprop engine. → link
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Israel may join US strikes under three scenarios. Israeli officials say Israel would participate if Iran attacks Israel directly, if intelligence detects imminent Iranian missile/UAV launches toward Israel, or if Trump formally requests Israel's participation. Current assessment is Iran will refrain from attacking Israel as long as the US doesn't significantly escalate. → link
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Oil prices surge 25% in two weeks; Strait of Hormuz traffic at two-thirds pre-conflict levels. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed oil is still flowing at just under 14 million barrels/day, contradicting public data. Gulf states are fast-tracking pipeline alternatives to reduce Hormuz reliance. → link
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Iranian missile/drone attack on Erbil, Iraq. US C-RAM systems engaged incoming Iranian attack drones over Erbil, with multiple loud explosions reported near the US Consulate General complex. → link
Analysis
Escalation Trajectory: The conflict has entered a dangerous reciprocal escalation cycle. Iran's "creeping barrage" strategy — using older-generation missiles and drones to saturate and deplete US/coalition air defenses — appears to be achieving tactical effects, with multiple Patriot interceptors reportedly failing to intercept incoming targets and four separate Iranian missile attacks successfully penetrating US defenses in Jordan over the past week. The deployment of additional US fighter squadrons signals preparation for a sustained, expanded air campaign rather than a finite retaliatory cycle.
Regional Spillover: Iran is deliberately widening the conflict's geographic scope, striking targets in Kuwait (infrastructure), Jordan (US military bases), and Iraq (US facilities in Erbil), while threatening countries supporting US operations. This appears designed to pressure regional states to constrain US operations and fracture the coalition. Kuwaiti power/water infrastructure being hit twice suggests a campaign to degrade Gulf state resilience.
Diplomatic Channels: The Iraqi PM's shuttle diplomacy and Trump's stated desire for a "peaceful agreement" suggest backchannel discussions remain active, but there is no visible indication Iran is seeking de-escalation. Iran's ability to receive potential targeting assistance from China or Russia (as reported by NYT) further complicates diplomatic off-ramps.
Israel's Calculated Restraint: Israel is maintaining a conditional posture — ready to join strikes but assessing Iran will avoid direct attacks on Israel as long as US escalation remains at current levels. The surfacing of an Israeli Navy submarine near Eilat may signal readiness for Red Sea contingencies.
What to Watch Next: - Whether US escalates beyond military targets to infrastructure/leadership strikes - Iran's response to the Darkhovin nuclear site strike — potential nuclear program retaliation - Whether Hormuz traffic drops further or Iran moves to close the strait entirely - Outcome of Aoun-Trump meeting Tuesday and its impact on Lebanon withdrawal framework - Potential Israeli entry into the campaign if Iran shifts targeting toward Israeli territory - Oil price trajectory and Gulf state pipeline diversification acceleration
Tweet Feed
US Military Operations & Deployments
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T18:59
Faytuks Intel Team: Within the last few days the U.S has deployed the following to CENTCOM's AOR: - 15x F-35A's from RAF Lakenheath - 12x F-15's from RAF Lakenheath - 12x F-16's from Aviano Air Base - 12x F-16s from Spangdahlem Air Base Notably, these units have only just returned from being deployed within CENTCOM. Many of the jets are already sporting nose markings from action during Operation Epic Fury → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T18:34
The Pentagon has mobilized F-16 fighter jets stationed in Germany alongside F-35 stealth fighters based in Britain, with additional aerial refueling aircraft also en route to the region, officials say - NYT → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T18:34
The US is rushing additional advanced warplanes and support assets to the Middle East, American officials say, signaling the Trump administration is preparing to significantly escalate its air campaign against Iran - NYT → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T03:46
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has announced the completion of another round of retaliatory strikes, for the eighth night in a row, against Iranian military coastal surveillance and air defense facilities, maritime capabilities, and missile and drone storage sites, which were carried out at the direction of the Commander-in-Chief, President Donald J. Trump. In addition to regular targets in the Persian Gulf and Southern Iran, CENTCOM also conducted precision strikes against elements of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that were responsible for ballistic missile and drone attacks on Friday, July 17, against U.S. bases in Jordan, which killed two and injured multiple other American Servicemembers. → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-07-19T02:33
US forces continued a series of airstrikes on southern Iran tonight, with most strikes focused on the Bandar Abbas area. CENTCOM said it would "swiftly punish IRGC forces who launched attacks against American service members in Jordan last night" → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-07-19T04:15
Newly released footage of US forces conducting airstrikes on Iran overnight, seen hitting construction equipment and a coastal radar site. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T02:59
Iran's state-run Tasnim News Agency reports U.S. strikes against targets to the southeast of Ahwaz, in the Khuzestan Province of Southwestern Iran. → tweet link
@lookner · 2026-07-19T02:53
Iran state media Tasnim says the U.S. attacked Qeshm Island again. Two explosions were heard at 6:10am -- unclear if these were the explosions heard in Bandar Abbas around the same time. → tweet link
@lookner · 2026-07-19T00:54
Iran state media Tasnim: around 40 minutes ago, 6 missiles hit Qeshm Island → tweet link
@lookner · 2026-07-19T02:50
Reports from @Vahid of several explosions heard in Bandar Abbas a few minutes ago → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T17:38
An area on the outskirts of Abadan district, Iran was subjected to a US attack a few minutes ago - Deputy Governor of Khuzestan says → tweet link
@lookner · 2026-07-19T03:26
Axios: "Two U.S. officials said there have been four different Iranian missile attacks that hit U.S. forces on bases in Jordan over the last week. Dozens of U.S. service members were wounded in the attacks and several helicopters were destroyed, one U.S. official said. The U.S. official expressed concern that the four incidents signal that Iran has managed to exploit vulnerabilities in the U.S. defenses in Jordan." → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T14:25
U.S. Marine Corps F-35B Lightning IIs assigned to the "Green Knights" of Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 121 (VMFA-121), carry out flight operation onboard the Wasp-class amphibious assault ship, USS Boxer (LHD-4), while transiting the Arabian Sea, in footage published today by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). → tweet link
@TreyYingst · 2026-07-18T23:01
Heavy U.S. strikes are now targeting Iran. → tweet link
Iranian Attacks on US Forces & Regional Targets
@lookner · 2026-07-19T18:12
Kuwait army: Iranian missiles and drones today "have struck facilities affiliated with the Ministry of Electricity, Water, and Renewable Energy, leading to outbreaks of fires and causing severe damage to a number of its facilities and vital installations." → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T18:04
Kuwait's Armed Forces have said that Kuwaiti air defenses have dealt with a number of Iranian drone and missile attacks today, adding that facilities and installations of the Ministry of Electricity, Water, and Renewable Energy have been targeted and damaged in the strikes. → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T18:02
Kuwait intercepts ballistic missiles and hostile drones - MoD → tweet link
@lookner · 2026-07-19T16:11
Kuwait says Iran attacked the same power and water desalination plant for a second time in two days → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T17:25
Two sub-feeders from the main transformation station Hattin (H) in Kuwait went out of service due to a technical failure, causing a power outage in parts of the Hattin area - Kuwait Ministry of Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy says → tweet link
@TreyYingst · 2026-07-19T16:14
TODAY: Iran launched missiles at Aqaba, Jordan that sits on the border with Israel along the Red Sea. Israeli missile interceptors were triggered to shoot down debris. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T12:32
According to the Israel Defense Force (IDF), the IDF detected missile launches from Iran toward Jordan, specifically Aqaba, that may trigger alerts in the southern Israeli city of Eilat. Per reports, the IDF has now said that missile fragment were engaged by Israeli air defense to mitigate the threat to Israel's territory. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T15:07
Confirming earlier reports, the Israel Defense Force (IDF), the IDF has said that air defenses intercepted debris from Iranian missiles fired at areas in Jordan near the Israeli border. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T12:29
Video purportedly filmed in Aqaba, Jordan appears to show multiple missile trails overhead as air raid sirens were activated for an incoming threat. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T12:18
Al Arabiya reports air raid sirens are active across parts of Jordan amid emerging reports of an Iranian missile attack targeting the Aqaba area. The reports come just hours after the U.S. Embassy in Amman issued a Security Alert warning of a "specific and credible threat" in Aqaba, prompting Jordanian authorities to evacuate the city's international airport and seaport. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T10:39
The U.S. Embassy in Amman has issued a Security Alert citing a "specific and credible threat" in Aqaba. Jordanian authorities have evacuated Aqaba's international airport and seaport, and Americans are being urged to avoid both locations. The alert comes after multiple Iranian missile and drone attacks on Jordan in recent days, including strikes on U.S. military facilities, as well as Iranian warnings that countries supporting U.S. military operations could face additional attacks. → tweet link
@TheIntelFrog · 2026-07-19T13:29
Iranian attacks against Muwaffaq Salti AB, Jordan have intensified this week, with multiple missiles penetrating one of the region's most capable integrated air defense networks. At least two U.S. service members have been killed, one remains missing, and dozens more have been wounded in attacks over the past week. → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T17:31
IDF sent Jordan a preliminary warning before firing toward the Aqaba area in Jordan - i24News → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-07-19T00:55
American C-RAM systems continue to engage incoming Iranian attack drones with streams of 20mm Phalanx fire over the northern Iraqi city of Erbil tonight. → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-07-18T23:16
American C-RAM engaging Iranian attack drones over the northern Iraqi city of Erbil tonight. → tweet link
@vcdgf555 · 2026-07-18T22:01
RT @BaxtiyarGoran: Loud explosions in Erbil. New wave of Iranian attacks. Air defense activated. → tweet link
@TheIntelFrog · 2026-07-18T20:52
One strategy Iran has previously discussed is using older generation missiles and drones to saturate and gradually deplete an adversary's air defenses before introducing more advanced weapons once interceptor stocks have been reduced sufficiently. There are early indications we may be seeing elements of that approach emerge. Several videos circulating from the recent attacks appear to show multiple Patriot interceptors launched against individual incoming targets failing to intercept. → tweet link
Iranian Casualties & Damage from US Strikes
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T17:16
Iranian authorities say 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest American strikes - Mehr News → tweet link
@ELINTNews · 2026-07-19T12:31
RT @FaytuksNetwork: Iran's Atomic Energy Organization says the US struck the construction site of the Darkhovin nuclear power plant in Khuzestan → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T17:36
Israeli airstrikes on March 7 and 9 damaged 11 historic Iranian sites including Isfahan's Naqsh-e Jahan Square and Chehel Sotoun palace, with UNESCO confirming damage to seven listed heritage sites - Reuters → tweet link
@HananyaNaftali · 2026-07-19T04:16
WATCH: Iranian women celebrate new US airstrikes against the Islamic regime near Bandar Abbas, chanting to America: "Keep going. You are doing great." The people of Iran are not the enemy. The regime is. → tweet link
MQ-9 Drone Shootdown
@Osinttechnical · 2026-07-19T18:32
Iranian villagers (and donkey) recovering the Honeywell TPE331 turboprop engine from a shot down American MQ-9 Reaper drone. → tweet link
@vcdgf555 · 2026-07-19T12:48
RT @EGYOSINT: Iranian state media has released footage showing the moment a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone was shot down by IRGC Aerospace Force → tweet link
US Casualties & Medical Evacuations
@HananyaNaftali · 2026-07-19T06:45
Two American soldiers were killed and one is missing after an Iranian missile strike on a U.S. base in Jordan. The United States is now retaliating with strikes inside Iran. This is exactly what Israel has been warning the world about for years. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T11:49
The first medical evacuation flight from Jordan since Iran's attack on Muwaffaq al Salti Air Base has arrived at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, where casualties will be evaluated by medical personnel at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center before receiving further treatment or onward transport as needed. → tweet link
@TheIntelFrog · 2026-07-19T11:25
USAF C-17A Globemaster III #AE07FA as RCH115 has arrived at Ramstein Air Base following a medical evacuation mission with stops in Djibouti and Jordan. The flight is the first known medevac to depart Jordan since the Iranian attack on Muwaffaq al Salti Air Base that killed two US service members and injured an unknown number of others. → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-07-18T21:11
Iranian attacks on US bases in Jordan over the past week have wounded dozens of U.S. service members and damaged a number of helicopters - multiple US officials to the NYT → tweet link
Diplomatic & Political Developments
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T18:31
Iraqi PM Ali Falih al-Zaidi is carrying a verbal message from President Trump to Iranian leadership, received during his recent visit to Washington, sources tell Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T14:51
After just over an hour, the meeting between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has ended, according to a release from the Lebanese president's office. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T16:03
The U.S. State Department has released a readout, following the meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in Washington, D.C. today. Per the release, the trilateral Israel-U.S.-Lebanon negotiations framework, centered on the dissolution of Lebanese Hezbollah and an Israeli tiered withdrawal from Southern Lebanon, was discussed. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T14:44
President Aoun is set to meet U.S. President Donald J. Trump this upcoming Tuesday. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T14:43
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun arrived at the U.S. State Department today for talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as the Israel-Lebanon withdrawal framework is increasingly under question with U.S.-Iran relations continuing to escalate. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T12:19
U.S. President Donald J. Trump has said that Congressional Republicans should add Iran to the Russian Sanctions Bill (Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025), as the bill progresses through the Senate. → tweet link
@sentdefender · 2026-07-19T14:10
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, speaking this morning on ABC News, said that President Trump still wants to end the ongoing conflict with a "peaceful agreement" with Iran, despite continued tit-for-tat strikes and the death of several U.S. Servicemembers in Jordan on Friday. → tweet link
Israel Posture & Regional Dynamics
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T17:32
Two Israeli officials say Israel could join attacks on Iran under three scenarios: if Iran attacks Israel, if Israeli intelligence detects Iran preparing to launch missiles or UAVs toward Israel, or if Trump formally requests Israel's participation - Kan News → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T17:32
Israel's current assessment is Iran will refrain from opening fire against Israel as long as the US doesn't significantly escalate its military campaign against Tehran - Kan News → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T17:31
Israel does not currently identify any Iranian intention or readiness to fire toward Israel in the immediate timeframe - i24News → tweet link
@HananyaNaftali · 2026-07-19T17:07
Not something you see every day. An Israeli Navy submarine surfaced near the shore in Eilat, surprising beachgoers enjoying the Red Sea. The rare footage has been approved for publication by the military censor. → tweet link
@TreyYingst · 2026-07-19T17:21
RT @PHREUTERS: Israel to receive more US refuelling planes as Iran attacks intensify, Israeli officials say → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T17:23
The Mossad's plan to overthrow Iran's regime reportedly included Kurdish militants receiving "air security" from the Israeli Air Force once activated - Kan News → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T17:23
Turkey threatened to provide air assistance to Iran if Kurds invaded the country as part of a Mossad ground operation, senior Israeli officials say, reportedly what Trump meant when he claimed Turkey was on the verge of involvement in the fighting - Kan News → tweet link
@HananyaNaftali · 2026-07-19T13:00
The fact that there was a Hezbollah cell in the United States should concern every US citizen! Thank God for the intelligence agencies that stopped this plot against the son of Israel's Prime Minister. → tweet link
Iran Nuclear Program
@TheIntelFrog · 2026-07-19T17:12
A weapon that they'd need the nuclear material that we destroyed a year ago and is buried under a mountain that only the US and China can get to? → tweet link
@TheIntelFrog · 2026-07-19T15:14
"We will come for your construction equipment. The mountains will not offer protection." → tweet link
Oil, Shipping & Strait of Hormuz
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T17:16
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says oil is still moving through Hormuz despite the fighting, with flows at just under 14 million barrels a day, two-thirds of pre-conflict traffic: "Almost all the public data I've seen is incorrect" → tweet link
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T18:36
Iran says two ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz via an "unsafe route" were involved in an unspecified "accident," while two others were deterred, according Mehr News (state-affiliated) → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-07-18T19:14
Iranian state media reports that Iranian forces are firing at ships in the Strait of Hormuz again tonight. → tweet link
@mercoglianos · 2026-07-19T07:57
Gulf states race to make Hormuz less relevant ▶️Gulf states are fast-tracking pipelines, export terminals and logistics corridors to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz after the latest disruption exposed the region's vulnerability to geopolitical conflict. ▶️Existing alternatives such as the UAE's Fujairah pipeline and Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline are gaining strategic importance, while new projects could eventually divert more than 10m barrels per day from Hormuz. ▶️The shift could redraw Middle East energy trade, boosting ports including Fujairah, Yanbu and Sohar, while creating longer-term challenges for tanker markets as more crude moves through overland infrastructure. → tweet link
@mercoglianos · 2026-07-19T07:49
Twin chokepoint threat looms after latest Hormuz tanker attack A tanker strike and dwindling Gulf traffic come as Iran could revive Houthi attacks, threatening simultaneous disruption at two maritime chokepoints. → tweet link
Intelligence & Strategic Assessment
@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-07-19T17:34
RT @hey_itsmyturn: Jet activity over western Tehran Tehran Province, Iran → tweet link
@ELINTNews · 2026-07-18T20:01
RT @FaytuksNetwork: Iran's ability to hit sensitive targets has raised concerns it's getting targeting help from China or Russia, according to NYT → tweet link
@TheIntelFrog · 2026-07-18T19:09
As I assessed last night, the impact of the Iranian ballistic missiles was in the billeting/berthing area for troops at a time when the area would most likely be occupied by troops not on a mission. Shelters in these area are simple and made of concrete. They are not designed to withstand the impact of a ballistic missile. They are designed to protect you from the fragmentation of a nearby explosion. → tweet link
@lookner · 2026-07-19T18:29
NY Times's account of the four Iranian attacks on US forces in Jordan in the past week → tweet link
@lookner · 2026-07-19T08:18
RT @moi_bahrain: The siren has been sounded, Citizens and residents are urged to remain calm and head to the nearest safe place. → tweet link
@vcdgf555 · 2026-07-18T22:23
RT @RYP__: I have been warning about current shaping of the battlefield around Bandar Abbas. Iran also seems to be countering by making Kuwait... → tweet link