Executive Summary
Over the last 24 hours, Ukraine has significantly escalated its deep-strike campaign against Russian military and energy infrastructure, inflicting crippling damage on the Moscow Oil Refinery—reportedly offline until at least 2027—and forcing a widespread domestic fuel crisis. In a major strategic development, Belarus has ceased operating Russian Shahed drone relay stations following a direct ultimatum from President Zelensky. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces executed complex coordinated strikes in occupied Crimea, degrading Russian air defense systems (including S-400 and Pantsir-S1 units) and hitting critical energy substations, prompting Russia to redeploy air defenses to protect Moscow and the Kerch Bridge at the expense of other sectors. A U.S. State Department official assessed that Ukraine is currently winning the war, successfully shifting the battlefield dynamic.
Key Events
- Belarus shuts down Russian Shahed drone relay stations following Zelensky's ultimatum, significantly reducing drone flight paths from the north. → link
- The Moscow Oil Refinery is unlikely to resume operations this year after Ukrainian drone strikes; repairs will take at least six months, likely keeping it offline into 2027. → link
- Zelensky orders preemptive strikes on Russian war infrastructure, noting Russia is pulling hundreds of air defense systems (S-400, S-500, Pantsir) to Moscow, Valdai, and the Kerch Bridge, weakening other sectors. → link
- Russian fuel crisis deepens: Authorities limit gasoline sales in over 10 regions, and Russia seeks 50,000 tons of AI-92 gasoline from Kazakhstan as domestic production falls by a quarter. → link
- Ukraine's SBU and Special Operations Forces strike Crimean airfields (Saky, Hvardiiske) and air defense systems (S-400, Pantsir-S1) near Kerch, asserting that Russia is losing control of Crimean airspace. → link
- Russian attacks kill 10 and injure 72 across Ukraine over the past day, including a deadly ballistic missile strike on Kryvyi Rih; Ukraine downed 95 out of 101 drones launched overnight. → link
- US State Department official Jeremy Levin states Ukraine is currently winning the war, arguing Kyiv has successfully changed the battlefield dynamic while Russian forces are stalling. → link
- Denmark transfers 15,000 long-range artillery rounds to Ukraine, responding to Kyiv's request for longer-range munitions over short-range ones. → link
- Ukrainian SOF "Deep Strike" units hit the Orenburg gas processing and helium plants in Russia with support from the "Black Spark" underground resistance movement. → link
- Ukraine deploys its first "Vyrivnyuvach" guided aerial bomb, capable of fundamentally changing front-line dynamics and halting Russian offensives if deployed en masse. → link
Analysis
Ukraine is executing a highly effective strategic attrition campaign, forcing Russia into a reactive posture. By crippling the Moscow Oil Refinery and triggering regional fuel rationing, Kyiv is eroding Russia's logistical and domestic economic stability. The successful shutdown of Belarusian relay stations for Russian Shaheds demonstrates that Ukrainian diplomatic and covert pressure can successfully constrain Russian operational launch points. Meanwhile, Ukraine's sustained targeting of Crimea—particularly advanced air defense assets near Kerch—has forced the Russian command to strip air defenses from other axes to fortify Moscow and the Kerch Bridge, creating exploitable vulnerabilities on the front line. The introduction of Ukrainian-made guided glide bombs (Vyrivnyuvach) and the shift toward longer-range Western artillery munitions signal a continued transition toward deeper, more precise strike capabilities, offsetting Russia's quantitative advantages.
What to Watch Next: * The extent of Russian fuel rationing and potential further supply chain contagion as the Moscow refinery remains offline. * Potential Russian military or retaliatory response to Belarus's compliance with Ukraine's ultimatum regarding drone relays. * Russian force realignments as they strip air defenses from occupied territories and forward positions to defend strategic rear areas like Moscow and Valdai. * The operational impact of Ukraine's new "Vyrivnyuvach" guided bombs on front-line Russian defensive lines in the coming days.
Tweet Feed
Deep Strikes & Russian Domestic Impact
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T18:29
Russia’s fuel crisis is spreading as Ukrainian strikes hit oil infrastructure. After shortages erupted in occupied Crimea, gas stations across dozens of Russian regions began limiting sales, with local authorities now imposing restrictions in over 10 regions. #Russia → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T18:26
❗️Reuters reports Russia has approached Kazakhstan about supplying around 50,000 tons of AI-92 gasoline as fuel shortages worsen. Russian gasoline production has fallen by about a quarter compared with last year amid refinery disruptions. #Russia → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-06-24T14:15
The Moscow oil refinery has been shuttered until 2027 due to Ukraine’s repeated successful drone attacks last week. Repairs will take 6 months “at best” per multiple sources to Reuters. → tweet link
@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-24T17:42
⚡️Moscow Oil Refinery unlikely to resume operations this year, Reuters reports. According to two sources familiar with the matter, repairs at the refinery are expected to take at least six months, potentially keeping the facility offline through the end of 2026. → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T13:00
❗️Jackpot: Reuters reports the Moscow oil refinery is unlikely to resume production this year after suffering extensive damage in Ukrainian drone strikes. Repairs are expected to take at least six months, worsening fuel shortages and pressure on Russia’s energy sector. #Russia → tweet link
@wartranslated · 2026-06-24T14:59
Reuters reports that following AFU attacks, the Moscow Oil Refinery has suspended operations until at least 2027. This specific facility supplied the occupiers' capital with millions of tons of gasoline and diesel. → tweet link
@wartranslated · 2026-06-24T13:06
Russians are complaining about fuel shortages at gas stations. They can't fill up their tanks and have no clue what's going on. Well, what is happening, indeed? → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T07:19
Satellite images confirm Ukraine conducted a strike on the Dubna Space Communications Center in Moscow region on June 22. The facility is Russia’s largest satellite communications hub, supporting government communications, nuclear test monitoring and international links. At least two impacts were recorded. #Russia → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T09:46
Ukraine’s SOF Deep Strike units struck two key Russian facilities near Orenburg: the Orenburg gas processing plant and the Orenburg helium plant. The mission was carried out with support from the “Black Spark” underground resistance movement inside Russia. #Russia → tweet link
@KaterynaLis · 2026-06-24T14:45
UA RESULTS FOR LONG-RANGE STRIKES: among the recent successful target engagements on the occupier’s territory, it is worth noting the destruction of more than 60,000 tons of ammunition at a Baltic Fleet arsenal near St. Petersburg. In addition, analysis conducted by military intelligence confirmed that the designated targets of Russian military production facilities had been hit. VIDEO: Russian Navy Baltic Sea Fleet corvette Boikiy burning in its Kronstadt dry-dock after a Ukrainian drone strike on June 4th. → tweet link
@vcdgf555 · 2026-06-24T01:25
Regarding the Voronezh strike. → tweet link
Crimea Operations & Air Defense Degradation
@KaterynaLis · 2026-06-24T08:11
‼️SECURITY SERVICE OF UKRAINE: Russian forces are steadily losing control of Crimea’s airspace. Each destroyed air defense system and damaged airfield expands Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian military infrastructure. The SBU says it will continue applying pressure until Russian forces leave the Ukrainian peninsula. Soldiers of the SBU’s Alpha Special Operations Center carried out successful strikes against Russian air defense systems near the Kerch Strait and targeted infrastructure at the Saky and Hvardiiske military airfields in occupied Crimea. According to preliminary reports, four aircraft storage hangars were hit at the Saky airfield. Near Kerch, two components of an S-400 air defense system and two Pantsir-S1 air defense systems were also struck — the fourth Pantsir destroyed by SBU Alpha in the area. → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T08:49
Ukraine’s SBU says Alpha special forces carried out strikes against Russian air defense systems and military airfield infrastructure in occupied Crimea. According to preliminary data, four aircraft shelters were hit at Saky airbase. Near Kerch, the operation reportedly struck two components of an S-400 air defense system and two Pantsir-S1 systems. #Crimea → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T09:27
Ukraine’s 413th Raid Regiment and 427th Rarog Brigade struck the 330/110 kV Western Crimea substation near Karierne in occupied Crimea. The facility is a key transmission node serving central and western parts of the peninsula. #Crimea → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-06-24T04:16
Ukrainian attack drones successfully hit a major power substation outside of the Russian-occupied city of Sevastopol this morning, causing power cuts in the Crimean capital. Seen here, multiple parts of the Sevastopol 330/220 kV switching yards burn. → tweet link
@Osinttechnical · 2026-06-24T03:45
Ukrainian attack drones hit one of Sevastopol’s primary electric substations in Russian-occupied Crimea overnight, setting it ablaze. Locals report power outages in the Crimean capital. → tweet link
@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-24T02:50
⚡️Crimea power plant reportedly struck by Ukrainian drones as peninsula faces outages. Ukrainian drones struck a thermal power plant in occupied Crimea overnight on June 24, social media channels reported as Ukraine ramps up pressure on the peninsula. → tweet link
@wartranslated · 2026-06-24T16:03
Satellite imagery has emerged showing the aftermath of AFU strikes on temporarily occupied Crimea and the surrounding areas. The images reveal damage to key logistics routes used to resupply the occupying forces - specifically the bridges in Henichesk and Chongar, as well as fires at oil facilities. A smoke screen used to camouflage the Kerch Bridge is also visible. → tweet link
@wartranslated · 2026-06-24T08:57
According to monitoring channels, explosions were heard in Crimea overnight. Sevastopol was left without power, and thick black smoke rose over the city. → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T18:36
Zelensky ordered Ukrainian intelligence and the army to hit preemptively at facilities Russia uses to expand the war. He said Russian leadership is pulling additional air defenses to Moscow, Valdai and the Kerch Bridge at the expense of other directions, concentrating hundreds of S-400, S-500 and Pantsir launchers in the Moscow region and nearly 90 launchers at Valdai. #Ukraine → tweet link
@KaterynaLis · 2026-06-24T14:56
ZELENSKYY: Among the measures taken by the Russian leadership in response to the situation is the redeployment of air defense systems from Russian regions to Moscow and the Kerch Bridge. These are essentially the two areas Russians have been ordered to protect by weakening defenses in other parts of Russia and temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory. We will draw the necessary conclusions. → tweet link
@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-24T15:43
⚡️Russia redeploys air defenses to Moscow, Kerch Bridge as Ukrainian strikes intensify, military intelligence says. "In practice, these are the two areas the Russians have been ordered to defend at the expense of weakening other sectors of their territory and the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine," Zelensky said. → tweet link
Geopolitics & Western Support
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T18:54
❗️US State Department official Jeremy Levin said Ukraine is currently winning the war, arguing Kyiv has entered a new phase and successfully changed the battlefield dynamic. He said Ukrainian forces are maintaining pressure, including strikes against infrastructure inside Russia, while Russian forces are now waiting for winter rather than advancing through it. #Ukraine → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T18:42
Belarus relay stations Russia used to support attacks on Ukraine’s western regions have ceased operating, Zelensky said. He said the systems had played a role in facilitating Russian strike operations. Earlier, Zelensky gave Lukashenko an ultimatum to shut them down, warning that Ukraine would be forced to do it itself if Belarus did not act. #Ukraine → tweet link
@KaterynaLis · 2026-06-24T17:27
‼️ZELENSKYY: Since June 22, the signal retransmitters used to guide Russian Shahed drones have ceased operating on the territory of Belarus. Whether they have been taken down or not is not clear yet. The fact is that the retransmitters are currently not operating. → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T18:37
❗️Zelensky added that Ukraine’s operation, including in Crimea, is precisely calculated. He said that if the steps discussed with Ukraine’s partners take place, Kyiv will quickly create conditions under which Russia is forced to stop military action and choose peace. #Ukraine → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T18:34
Denmark will transfer 15,000 long-range artillery rounds to Ukraine after responding to Kyiv’s proposal for partners to supply longer-range munitions instead of short-range ammunition. Part of the shipment has already arrived in Ukraine. #Ukraine → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T18:31
❗️Euractiv reports the EU’s first payment from its €90B Ukraine loan will no longer include €5.9B for drone production, shifting instead to €3.2B in budget support. A separate defense disbursement is expected in the coming days. #Ukraine → tweet link
@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-24T14:18
Since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office last year, the United Kingdom has emerged as one of Ukraine's strongest backers, providing military, financial, and diplomatic support as Washington's commitment became less predictable. → tweet link
@wartranslated · 2026-06-24T14:54
Lavrov stated that they are ready for negotiations with Ukraine but will not allow themselves to be "cheated." He also added that Russia will not stop at the front line as a condition for starting talks on Ukraine. → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T11:05
Lavrov added Russia will not stop along the current front line to begin negotiations on Ukraine. He called European demands “inadequate” and “schizophrenic,” saying Moscow is ready for talks only with “reasonable ideas” and “adequate people.” #Russia → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T11:04
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov rejected reports claiming Trump encouraged Zelensky to pursue tougher sanctions, greater pressure and deeper military action against Russia. The Russian foreign minister called the reports “wishful thinking” that does not reflect reality. #Russia → tweet link
@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-24T09:32
⚡️ Russia accuses US of anti-Russian shift, says bilateral dialogue has stalled. "This is a departure from where the Trump administration started its dialogue with us," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. → tweet link
Battlefield Updates & Military Tech
@wartranslated · 2026-06-24T16:54
Ukraine has used its own "Vyrivnyuvach" guided aerial bomb against Russian forces for the first time. This is capable of fundamentally changing the situation on the front line, halting the enemy's offensive, and even helping us launch our own counteroffensive. If deployed en masse, these bombs will simply obliterate the enemy's lines of defense. → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T18:27
Ukraine’s Spalakh unmanned systems battalion of the 28th Mechanized Brigade filmed a Russian Shahed-type drone being launched from a pickup for the first time. The pickup used as the launch platform was later destroyed. #Ukraine → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T13:03
New footage from the June 18 attack on Moscow shows Ukrainian drones, including jet-powered Bars UAVs, pushing through Russian air defenses at close range. Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Syrskyi said today: “More to come.” #Ukraine → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T13:05
Ukraine’s 475th Separate Assault Regiment CODE 9.2 says its fighters destroyed more than 100 Russian vehicles and equipment systems over 7 days, hitting targets at distances of up to 100 km. #Ukraine → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T08:31
Ukraine’s Navy and HUR detected and destroyed three Russian uncrewed surface vessels in a coordinated operation. #Ukraine → tweet link
@wartranslated · 2026-06-24T08:12
The approximate route of 320 UAVs of various types that flew towards Moscow, the occupied territories, and Krasnodar Krai yesterday. → tweet link
@wartranslated · 2026-06-24T10:31
Despite authorities allowing up to 200 liters of gasoline to be transported across the bridge, Russians are only permitted to buy 30 liters at gas stations. → tweet link
@wartranslated · 2026-06-24T14:25
The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine showed how border guards from the "Pomsta" Brigade, using RAK-SA-12 MLRS from the "Unit-A" detachment, burned out Russians in the Kharkiv region. → tweet link
@vcdgf555 · 2026-06-24T00:40
5 different aircraft dragged into a GPS/GNSS spoofing circle over Russia currently. → tweet link
@war_monitor_ua · 2026-06-23T21:02
📡 Обстановка станом на 00:00 24.06.26 — Стратегічна авіація: Не активна; БпЛА: Одинарні БпЛА на сході; Флот: Ракетоносії заведені в порти базування; → tweet link
@war_monitor_ua · 2026-06-23T20:16
🛫 Зліт МіГ-31К ВПС рф. МіГ-31К — носій гіперзвукової аеробалістичної ракети Х-47м2 комплексу "Кинджал", яка становить загрозу для всіх регіонів країни. → tweet link
@war_monitor_ua · 2026-06-24T18:31
💥 Вибухи Одеський район. Загроза балістики триває до відбою. → tweet link
@KofmanMichael · 2026-06-24T18:25
One of the long standing issues is that too much of the Western arty supply has been 14km rounds, when artillery often has to pull back to 12km+ from the FLOT due to the danger from drones. Even then it’s risky for arty. Ukraine needs a lot more 23km+ range munitions. → tweet link
@NOELreports · 2026-06-24T18:56
Ukrainian Unmanned Technologies and France’s Haulotte are launching joint production of Ravlyk ground robotic systems. Haulotte will provide production, logistics and service capacity for serial manufacturing. The Ravlyk is already used by Ukrainian forces for logistics, reconnaissance and evacuation tasks in combat zones. #Ukraine → tweet link
@KarolinaKuzema · 2026-06-23T22:05
RT @front_ukrainian: ❗️Near 🇺🇦Kyiv, the 🇵🇱Polish strike drone Striker (Deep Strike) with a range of up to 1,000 km was successfully tested. → tweet link
@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-24T14:28
⚡️Skelia assault regiment under investigation following report of 26 noncombat deaths, alleged abuse. According to the investigation, at least 26 service members died between late 2025 and spring 2026, many shortly after mobilization and training. → tweet link