Ukraine War Monitor

Executive Summary

Russia launched a combined ballistic and hypersonic missile attack on Kyiv overnight, with all five missiles (two ballistic and three Tsirkon) reportedly intercepted by Patriot air defense systems. Ukraine simultaneously executed one of its most ambitious deep-strike campaigns, hitting oil refineries in Ufa (1,500 km from the front line), the Poltavskaya depot in Krasnodar Krai, and over a dozen military and infrastructure targets across occupied Crimea — including radar stations, power plants, and a rare Volna Kupol Garant EW system. Zelenskyy revealed a 40-day SBU pressure operation and cited captured Russian internal documents showing a deepening fuel and logistics crisis, while Russia's fuel shortages have spread to 60+ regions. On the diplomatic front, Secretary Rubio contradicted Lavrov's claims of an Alaska agreement, France seized a Russian shadow fleet tanker, and Denmark announced it will deny residency to Ukrainian refugees of conscription age.

Key Events

• Kyiv under combined missile attack: Russia fired two ballistic missiles and three Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missiles at Kyiv; all five were intercepted by Patriot systems. Explosions and smoke plumes were captured on video. → link

• Massive Ukrainian strikes on occupied Crimea: Ukraine's Special Operations Forces hit 10+ targets including coastal radar stations (MR-231, Neva-B), the Tavriya Thermal Power Plant, oil depot in Dzhankoi, gas compressor stations, electrical substations in Sevastopol and Simferopol, and a ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun. A Volna Kupol Garant EW system (used to jam Starlink) was destroyed in Kerch. → link

• Deep strikes into Russia: Ukraine hit the Poltavskaya oil depot in Krasnodar Krai (for the second time this month), and two Bashneft refineries in Ufa — 1,500 km from the front line — with confirmed fires. Ukraine also confirmed damage to the Vladimir space communications center and gas processing units at the Orenburg plant. → link

• Zelenskyy announces 40-day SBU operation designed to pressure Russia into ending the war, citing the SBU's Alpha center successes with drone strikes on Russian personnel and equipment. → link

• Ukrainian flag raised on Kinburn Spit: Defense Forces forced Russian troops to retreat from positions; Ukraine's Navy clarified it remains a combat zone and the flag was installed remotely. → link

• Russia's fuel crisis deepens: Shortages reported in 60+ regions; Saratov described as critical with hours-long queues; Moscow refinery confirmed halted until 2027 after drone attacks. Zelenskyy cited intelligence suggesting Russia may postpone/cancel State Duma "elections" due to the crisis. → link

• Russia redeploying air defense to protect elite: Zelenskyy reported hundreds of S-400/S-500/Pantsir launchers moved to Moscow, nearly 90 to Valdai, and a special air defense division being assembled to protect Russian leadership — at the expense of other regions. → link

• France seizes Russian shadow fleet tanker: The tanker "Deliver" was intercepted off Sicily; Macron stated Europe will not allow the shadow fleet to evade sanctions. → link

• Rubio contradicts Lavrov on Alaska talks: "There was no agreement in Alaska. There was a proposal, but there was no agreement," the Secretary of State said. → link

• Netherlands purchasing 700 Ruta Block 2 cruise missiles for Ukraine in a €250 million deal. → link

• Ukraine receives first €3.2B tranche of €90B EU loan for defense capabilities and social resilience. → link

• Denmark to deny residency to Ukrainian refugees of conscription age, as several EU countries consider restricting temporary protection. → link

• Apple removes Russia's VK social network from App Store, cutting a major channel for state-backed narratives. → link

• Kerch Bridge traffic jams exceed 10 km: ~1,500 cars backed up due to intensified Russian checkpoint screenings and air raid alerts. → link

• First footage of Ukrainian glide bombs: Ukrainian fighter aircraft appeared to use domestically manufactured glide bombs against Russian positions. → link

Analysis

Escalation trajectory is clearly upward. Ukraine is dramatically expanding the depth and intensity of its strike campaign — hitting targets 1,500 km inside Russia while simultaneously conducting complex coordinated attacks across Crimea. The near-simultaneous ballistic + hypersonic missile attack on Kyiv represents a Russian escalation in kind, though all five were intercepted.

Crimea is under effective siege. The systematic targeting of radar stations, power infrastructure, fuel depots, and even specialized EW systems indicates Ukraine is methodically isolating the peninsula. The 10+ km traffic jams at Kerch Bridge and confirmed Russian redeployment of air defense to protect leadership infrastructure suggest Moscow's position in Crimea is deteriorating rapidly.

Russia's fuel crisis is strategic, not tactical. With 60+ regions experiencing shortages, the Moscow refinery offline until 2027, and reports of mobilization from factories, the compounding effects of Ukraine's refinery campaign are becoming operationally significant. Zelenskyy's claim that Russia may postpone Duma elections signals Kyiv sees this as a potential political fracture point.

What to watch: Whether Ukraine's expanding strike campaign and Crimea pressure translates into a ground offensive in the south; the impact of the EU refugee policy shift on Ukrainian mobilization; whether Russia's fuel crisis degrades frontline logistics; and the outcome of the 40-day SBU pressure operation.

Tweet Feed

Kyiv Missile Attack / Air Defense

@Euan_MacDonald · 2026-06-25T18:59

UPDATE: Kyiv probably just attacked almost simultaneously by two Russian ballistic missiles and three Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missiles. Video here probably shows the interception of the three Tsirkons. → tweet

@Euan_MacDonald · 2026-06-25T18:14

Moment of interception of a Russian ballistic missile over Kyiv caught on video (smoke plume from an earlier interception visible too). Ukrainian military monitoring channels say all five Russian missiles just launched at Kyiv were intercepted. → tweet

@wartranslated · 2026-06-25T18:39

An air raid alert was declared in Kyiv in the evening. Several Zircon missiles were launched toward the capital, but they were successfully intercepted by Patriot air defense systems. → tweet

@war_monitor_ua · 2026-06-25T18:05

‼️ Київ — спуск балістики! → tweet

@Euan_MacDonald · 2026-06-25T18:00

Wrong: Just heard explosions here in Kyiv. Reports that a Russian ballistic missile was intercepted (photo). → tweet

@war_monitor_ua · 2026-06-25T06:20

🟣 Загроза балістики з Криму. Увага. Імовірний пуск ракет системи «Іскандер», або робота ворожої ППО С-300/С-400. → tweet

Ukrainian Strikes on Crimea

@wartranslated · 2026-06-25T15:46

During the past night, Ukraine's Special Operations Forces struck multiple targets across Crimea, including: Coastal radar stations MR-231, Neva-B (x2), Tavriya Thermal Power Plant, Sevastopol & Simferopol substations, Oil depot Dzhankoi, Gas compressor stations (x2), ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun. → tweet

@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-25T15:51

⚡️Update: Ukrainian strikes hit energy, oil infrastructure in Russian-occupied Crimea as power outages continue, military confirms. Targets included the Tavriya Thermal Power Plant, an oil depot in Dzhankoi, gas compressor stations, substations, radar stations, and a ZU-23-2. → tweet

@wartranslated · 2026-06-25T11:07

Yesterday in Crimea, a rare Russian electronic warfare system used to jam Starlink was destroyed. The Russian "Volna Kupol Garant" EW system was burned down in occupied Kerch. → tweet

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T14:34

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported strikes on multiple military and energy targets across occupied Crimea. → tweet

Deep Strikes into Russia

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T14:48

CyberBoroshno analysis: Ukraine struck Bashneft-UNPZ and Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Ufa on June 25. Fires confirmed at both, with combined primary refining capacity of 10.5 million tons of oil per year. → tweet

@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-25T11:57

Striking up to 1,500 kilometers deep into Russian territory, Ukrainian forces targeted multiple oil facilities overnight on June 25 — Poltavskaya oil depot in Krasnodar region, and Bashneft refineries in Ufa. → tweet

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T14:47

Satellite images show damaged fuel storage tanks at the Kamysh-Burunskaya thermal power plant in Kerch after the June 23 strike. → tweet

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T11:16

Ukraine confirmed major damage to Russia's Vladimir space communications center after a June 22 strike. The 25-meter main antenna, satellite modem halls, switching nodes and technical buildings were hit. Also confirmed: June 24 strike damaged four gas processing units at the Orenburg plant. → tweet

@wartranslated · 2026-06-25T15:10

Ukrainian drones have once again paid a visit to the Poltavskaya Oil Depot JSC in Russia's Krasnodar Krai. → tweet

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T12:30

Ukraine's Defense Forces struck the Poltavskaya oil depot on the Kuban for the second time this month. Footage showed a Ukrainian Sichen drone attack by the SBU's Alpha unit. → tweet

@Osinttechnical · 2026-06-25T05:02

Ukrainian attack drones successfully hit a major Russian fuel distribution depot in Krasnodar Krai this morning, setting it ablaze. The site had been hit just a week ago. → tweet

Zelenskyy Announcements & Intelligence

@wartranslated · 2026-06-25T17:53

"I have approved a 40-day SBU operation designed to pressure Russia into ending the war." - Zelenskyy. → tweet

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T17:37

Zelensky said Ukrainian foreign intelligence obtained materials showing a daily deepening fuel, military logistics and command crisis in occupied Crimea. Russian occupation authorities recognize they cannot resolve the problems created by Ukrainian strikes. → tweet

@KaterynaLis · 2026-06-24T22:50

ZELENSKYY: according to Russian internal documents the Russian leadership is really feeling the heat from our pressure tactics. We're reaching their arsenals, hitting military production sites, communication centers. → tweet

@KaterynaLis · 2026-06-24T22:56

ZELENSKYY: Russia is redeploying more air defense systems to Moscow, Valdai, and Putin's bridge across the Kerch Strait. Hundreds of launchers for S-400, S-500, and Pantsir moved to Moscow region alone. Nearly 90 air defense launchers to Valdai. → tweet

@KaterynaLis · 2026-06-24T23:03

ZELENSKYY: due to the current difficult situation in Russia, the Kremlin may postpone or cancel the so-called "elections" for the State Duma. Fuel shortage in more than 60 Russian regions. → tweet

@KaterynaLis · 2026-06-24T22:24

ZELENSKYY: if Ukraine gets exactly what we discussed with our partners at the G7, Russia will be forced to choose peace. They know exactly what I'm talking about. → tweet

Russia's Fuel Crisis

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T10:43

Fuel supplies in Saratov are becoming critical, with hundreds of cars queuing at gas stations. Drivers reportedly waiting for hours as shortages spread. → tweet

@wartranslated · 2026-06-25T17:11

A Russian in Krasnodar Krai wanted to show off that their gas stations still have fuel and no queues — but it didn't quite go as planned. → tweet

@wartranslated · 2026-06-24T19:19

More and more Russians are complaining and even crying over the lack of gasoline. → tweet

@wartranslated · 2026-06-25T13:39

In Russia's Penza region, men are being mobilized straight from factories. Putin is urgently gathering an army at every turn. → tweet

Kinburn Spit / Southern Front

@wartranslated · 2026-06-25T10:16

The blue-and-yellow flag has been raised on the Kinburn Spit. The Defense Forces of the South have forced the Russian occupiers to retreat from their positions. → tweet

@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-25T11:11

⚡️ Ukrainian troops raise flag on Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast held by Russian forces since 2022, military says. Russian forces retreated under "heavy fire." → tweet

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T14:43

❗️Ukraine's Navy denied reports of a Russian retreat from Kinburn Spit. Spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said the peninsula remains a combat zone and that Ukrainian forces are continuing a months-long campaign to destroy Russian logistics there. → tweet

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T17:36

Russian forces are moving drone teams through forests to positions close to the front in northern Sumy region. Ukraine's 210th Assault Regiment is hunting launch sites. → tweet

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T11:01

Ukraine's 36th Marine Brigade is striking Russian shelters and logistics on the Kostiantynivka front. The VARTOVI unmanned systems battalion is focused on front line positions and rear support assets. → tweet

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T10:58

Ukrainian FPV drones are targeting Russian rear logistics, hitting buggies, cars, trucks, minibuses and a self-propelled artillery system. SSO Requiem Group and BALISTA special purpose units carried out the strikes. → tweet

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T14:39

Ukraine's HUR special forces destroyed another Russian APC on the Zaporizhzhia front. → tweet

Crimea Isolation / Kerch Bridge

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T10:46

Multi-kilometer traffic jams persist at the Kerch Bridge exit from occupied Crimea. More than 900 vehicles are waiting, with an estimated three-hour delay. Satellite images show the queue stretching more than 10 km. → tweet

@wartranslated · 2026-06-25T10:26

Satellite imagery showing kilometers-long traffic jams in Crimea. Photos from June 24 show around 1,500 cars stuck. The gridlock is worsened by Russian orders for intensified checkpoints, air raid alerts, and the threat of naval drones. → tweet

@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-25T17:40

Crimea is under an effective siege as Ukraine has been systematically isolating the occupied peninsula with a multipronged campaign of drone strikes. "Hell is beginning," Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said. → tweet

@Euan_MacDonald · 2026-06-25T17:48

"Since 2022, Ukraine has been slowly but surely forcing Russia to demilitarize the Crimean peninsula." → tweet

Diplomatic & Political Developments

@wartranslated · 2026-06-25T18:56

"Regarding Ukraine, the United States approved, for the first time, a text stating that it is no longer a neutral mediator, but rather supports Ukraine's territorial integrity, provides military assistance, helps with the energy sector, and imposes sanctions on Russia." - French President Emmanuel Macron. → tweet

@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-25T15:15

⚡️Rubio says no Ukraine agreement reached at Alaska summit, contradicting Moscow's claims. "There was no agreement in Alaska. There was a proposal, but there was no agreement." → tweet

@FaytuksNetwork · 2026-06-25T17:07

The French Navy intercepted a Russian-linked tanker on Tuesday. President Macron: "We will not allow the shadow fleet to evade sanctions and fund Russia's war effort." → tweet

@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-25T12:50

⚡️ France seizes Russian shadow fleet vessel in Mediterranean. "We will not allow the shadow fleet to evade sanctions and fund Russia's war effort. Europe is determined," French President Emmanuel Macron wrote. → tweet

@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-25T11:25

⚡️ Ukraine receives first tranche of 90 billion euro loan from EU. "The funds will be used to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities and social resilience," Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko wrote. → tweet

@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-25T15:25

⚡️Denmark says it won't grant refugee protection to Ukrainians eligible for conscription. Several EU countries are considering national laws intended to restrict how temporary protection works. → tweet

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T11:04

❗️Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico stated the war in Ukraine has no military solution and can end only through negotiations. → tweet

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T14:38

Belarusian leader Lukashenko claimed he recently met with representatives of Zelensky and warned that the nature of the war would "instantly change" if Belarus became involved. → tweet

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T12:28

Ukraine's HUR said its PRYMARY unit has destroyed or damaged hundreds of Russian targets worth more than $4 billion since 2022. → tweet

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T12:00

US Secretary of State Rubio pushed back on Lavrov, saying no agreement was reached in Alaska — only a proposal was made. → tweet

@KaterynaLis · 2026-06-25T00:47

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte praised Trump for continuing to support Ukraine: "You've been a leader of the free world. And now we see it with Ukraine." → tweet

@KaterynaLis · 2026-06-25T00:15

TRUMP ABOUT ZELENSKYY: "He's doing pretty well. You gotta hand it to him. He's courageous. He's got great equipment, but he's got great men. He's got fighters." → tweet

Western Support / Military Aid

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T12:30

The Netherlands is purchasing 700 Ruta Block 2 cruise missiles for Ukraine in a €250 million deal. → tweet

@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-25T12:29

⚡️ New US-World Bank partnership to de-risk investment in Ukraine. MIGA will insure DFC projects in Ukraine against political and war-related risks. → tweet

@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-25T18:30

"In May alone, Ukraine carried out 16 strikes on Russian oil refineries — a monthly record since the start of the full-scale war, Bloomberg calculated." → tweet

@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-25T13:50

⚡️Ukraine faces possible daily 5-hour power cuts in July–August if Russian attacks continue, Ukrenergo says. → tweet

Military Capabilities / Equipment

@Euan_MacDonald · 2026-06-25T17:06

Ukrainian drone and cruise missile output is rising, and Ukrainian-made ballistic missiles will soon enter service. The air war will rise in intensity over the summer. Russia is more likely to lash out at civilian targets and threaten "Oreshnik" IRBMs and tactical nuclear weapons. → tweet

@Osinttechnical · 2026-06-24T20:22

What appears to be the first publicly released footage of a Ukrainian fighter using Ukrainian glide bombs to hit a Russian position. → tweet

@wartranslated · 2026-06-24T19:40

Right now, a total of around 330 drones and missiles are flying toward Russia to attack it. → tweet

@wartranslated · 2026-06-24T21:19

FPV drones strike a Shahed launcher on a pickup truck at Donetsk Airport. → tweet

@NOELreports · 2026-06-25T10:50

Ukraine's Defense Forces struck the Poltavskaya oil depot, three bridges, a logistics depot, a command post, and Nebo and Skala-M radar systems near Kerch. → tweet

Information War / Other

@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-25T11:12

⚡️ Apple removes Russia's biggest social network from App Store. VK is a major channel for state-backed narratives. → tweet

@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-25T11:28

⚡️ Senior Russian officials attack Kyiv Independent report, tell Russians not to trust Ukrainian media. → tweet

@KyivIndependent · 2026-06-25T16:56

⚡️Skelia assault regiment commander suspended from duty amid investigation into alleged abuse. → tweet

@wartranslated · 2026-06-25T17:53

"Regarding Ukraine, the United States approved, for the first time, a text stating that it is no longer a neutral mediator, but rather supports Ukraine's territorial integrity." - Macron. → tweet

@konrad_muzyka · 2026-06-24T20:59

On 17 JUN, Belarusian and Russian media reported an alleged Ukrainian drone strike on a bus carrying Belarusian children in Bryansk Oblast. The incident increases risk of escalation between Minsk and Kyiv. → tweet

@FilippDM · 2026-06-25T13:39

Ukrainians are preparing the battlefield for an offensive operation in the south — Crimea/Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia. Such isolation of the battlefield hasn't been seen since spring 2023. → tweet